What should I include in my restaurant’s financial projections to make sure they are accurate and useful?

Accurate restaurant projections are built from operational reality, not guesswork. The most useful projections connect your sales assumptions to staffing, food cost, fixed overhead, and cash timing, then show what happens when volume is higher or lower than expected.

To keep projections both accurate and practical, focus on the few drivers that truly move restaurant performance: covers, average spend, prime cost, and seasonality. When those are clear, the numbers become a planning tool you can manage week to week, not just a document for a lender or investor.

What to include in restaurant financial projections

In most restaurants, projections are considered “useful” when they answer three questions clearly: how revenue is generated, what it costs to deliver the service, and whether cash stays positive while you grow.

• Sales forecast by revenue stream (dine-in, takeaway, delivery, catering, events, bar)
• Volume and pricing drivers (covers/orders, average check, menu mix, table turns, operating days/hours)
• Cost of goods sold (food, beverage, packaging) tied to menu pricing and expected mix
• Labor plan (FOH/BOH hours, roles, wages, taxes/benefits) mapped to service periods
• Operating expenses (rent, utilities, marketing, software, repairs, supplies, linens, merchant fees)
• Prime cost view (COGS + labor) with a target range you can monitor
• Seasonality and daypart patterns (weekday vs weekend, lunch vs dinner, holidays)
• Capital items and depreciation assumptions (equipment purchases, replacements, build-out)
• Debt and financing (loan payments, interest, repayment schedules)
• Cash flow timing (when you pay suppliers, payroll cycles, tax/VAT timing, delivery platform payouts)
• One-time and opening costs (permits, training, pre-opening payroll, initial inventory, marketing launch)
• Contingency and downside case (what you cut first if sales are 10–20% lower)

Make your assumptions explicit

Projections get “inaccurate” when assumptions are hidden. A simple rule widely used in hospitality: every major number should be traceable to an operational assumption you can explain in plain language.

The key assumptions most restaurants track

• Average spend per guest/order (separate food vs beverage if you have a bar)
• Guest counts or order counts by daypart and by day of week
• Menu mix (your best sellers vs low movers) and expected contribution of each category
• Waste, comps, and discounts as a percentage of sales
• Staffing levels by shift (not “labor %” alone)
• Supplier pricing changes and seasonal ingredients

Use three core statements, even if you keep them simple

Most operators find projections more actionable when they’re shown in the same structure every month. You don’t need complex modeling, but you do want consistent outputs.

Typically included outputs

• Projected Profit & Loss (monthly): sales, COGS, labor, operating expenses, operating profit
• Projected Cash Flow (weekly or monthly): inflows/outflows based on real payment timing
• Projected Balance Sheet (basic): cash, inventory, loans, payables, owner equity

How it’s typically done in practice

A common, reliable process is to start from capacity and demand, then build costs around that. This avoids the classic mistake of setting a revenue target first and forcing the expenses to fit.

• Start with hours of operation and service periods (lunch/dinner/late-night)
• Estimate covers or orders by daypart, then apply an average check and menu mix
• Calculate COGS from your menu pricing and target food/beverage cost ranges
• Build a staffing schedule (roles and hours per shift), then total labor cost
• Add fixed and semi-variable expenses based on quotes, contracts, and past bills
• Convert the plan into cash timing (supplier terms, payroll dates, tax dates)
• Create at least two scenarios (base case + conservative case) and note triggers
• Review monthly and adjust assumptions using real sales and cost data

Real-world examples of what makes projections “useful”

Example 1: Café with strong morning traffic

A café might project steady daily transactions, but the useful projection separates morning coffee/pastry from afternoon slow periods. That leads to a practical labor plan (shorter mid-day coverage) and a purchasing plan that reduces waste in pastries and milk.

Example 2: Bar with weekend spikes

A bar often looks profitable on a monthly P&L but can still run into cash pressure if payroll and supplier payments hit before weekend sales are collected. A cash flow projection that maps payout timing (card settlements, supplier terms) prevents avoidable shortfalls.

Example 3: Restaurant adding delivery

When adding delivery, a useful projection breaks out packaging, higher merchant/platform fees, and a different menu mix (more best sellers, fewer high-labor dishes). That keeps the margin assumptions honest and protects kitchen throughput during peak dine-in hours.

Common mistakes that reduce accuracy

• Using one average check for everything instead of separating dayparts or channels
• Assuming labor will “scale automatically” without a shift-based schedule
• Ignoring seasonality and local events that affect traffic
• Mixing one-time opening costs into normal monthly operating expenses
• Projecting profit without projecting cash timing
• Not updating assumptions after the first 4–8 weeks of real trading data

How digital menus and management tools can support the process

Your projections improve when menu pricing, item availability, and sales mix are easier to track and adjust. A digital menu system can help you keep your “assumptions” aligned with what guests actually see and buy.

For example, if you manage menus across locations or languages, a platform like Menuviel can make it simpler to keep items, modifiers, and dietary/allergen information consistent while you update prices or availability. That reduces version confusion and helps your team execute the plan you projected.